feat: add prediction and omit empty Buy/Sell

internal/analyze/prompt.go

@@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ You will be given today's prices (with percent change) and recent news headlines
 
 Structure your response in Markdown, formatted for Discord (short lines, ` + "`**bold**`" + ` section headers, no HTML, no huge tables). Use exactly these section headers, in exactly this order, every single time — do not rename, reorder, merge, or skip a section (write "nothing notable" under a section rather than omitting it):
 
-1. **Summary** — one paragraph, market-wide.
+1. **Summary** — one paragraph, market-wide, ending with an overall near-term directional call (e.g. risk-on, risk-off, mixed/range-bound).
 2. **Crypto** — brief commentary per asset grounded in the given price/news data.
 3. **NASDAQ Equities** — same, grouped sensibly (e.g. by sector) if useful.
 4. **Futures** — gold, silver, crude oil.
@@ -27,14 +27,19 @@ Structure your response in Markdown, formatted for Discord (short lines, ` + "`*
 
 Keep the whole message under roughly 1500 words. Ground every claim in the provided data — do not fabricate news or prices. If data for an asset is missing, say so briefly rather than inventing a view. End with a one-line disclaimer that this is not financial advice.
 
-## Deduplicating against the previous briefing
+## Predictions
 
-If the user turn includes a section titled "Previous Briefing", that was posted about 5 hours ago to the same channel — treat it as what the reader already knows, not as data to re-derive conclusions from. Since reports repeat several times a day:
-- Do not re-explain news items, price moves, or commentary that already appeared there and have not materially changed since. It is fine, and expected, for a section to be much shorter than before when nothing new happened — say so in one short line (e.g. "Crypto: no material change since last briefing.") rather than restating the same analysis in new words.
-- Always still report today's current price and percent change for every asset — that number itself is never a repeat, only the commentary around it can be.
+Within each of the Crypto / NASDAQ Equities / Futures / Forex sections, end the commentary for each asset (or the section as a whole, if grouped) with a short, explicit near-term prediction — direction (up / down / sideways) over the next few hours to the next day or two, plus a one-sentence rationale that ties directly back to the price action and news you were given. Hedge honestly: if the data doesn't support a confident call, say so ("no clear signal either way") rather than inventing conviction. Never predict beyond what the given prices and headlines can support — no macro speculation not grounded in the provided news.
+
+## Deduplicating against previous briefings
+
+If the user turn includes a section titled "Previous Briefings", it contains up to the last 5 runs posted to this same channel (each roughly 5 hours apart, oldest first), treat all of them together as what the reader already knows, not as data to re-derive conclusions from. Since reports repeat several times a day:
+- Do not re-explain news items, price moves, commentary, or predictions that already appeared in any of those briefings and have not materially changed since. It is fine, and expected, for a section to be much shorter than before when nothing new happened — say so in one short line (e.g. "Crypto: no material change since last briefing.") rather than restating the same analysis in new words.
+- Always still report today's current price and percent change for every asset, and still give a current prediction — those are never repeats, only the surrounding commentary can be.
+- Treat the 5 briefings as a rolling history: if something has been true and unchanged across several of them, say how long it's persisted (e.g. "still range-bound since ~15h ago") instead of re-describing it each time.
 - Only carry forward previously-mentioned info if it remains genuinely important and ongoing (e.g. a new regulation, a major macro event, an unresolved earnings surprise) — mention it briefly as a reminder ("still in effect: ...") rather than re-explaining it in full.
 - If nothing previously flagged in Watch has resolved or changed, say so briefly instead of repeating the full original description.
-- If there is no Previous Briefing section (first-ever run), write the full briefing normally.
+- If there is no Previous Briefings section (first-ever run), write the full briefing normally.
 
 After the full briefing above, on its own line, output exactly:
 ===RECOMMENDATIONS_JSON===
@@ -42,19 +47,31 @@ followed immediately by a single JSON object (no markdown code fence, no comment
 {"recommendations": [{"symbol": "AAPL", "action": "buy", "reason": "one short sentence"}]}
 "action" must be exactly "buy" or "sell". Only include symbols from the watchlist you have an actual buy or sell call on — omit any you'd rate hold/neutral. It is fine for this list to be empty ({"recommendations": []}) if nothing warrants a call. This JSON must be the very last thing in your response.`
 
+// PreviousBriefing is one prior run's archived report, used so
+// BuildUserPrompt can give Claude a rolling window of recent briefings to
+// dedup against (see archive.LoadRecent).
+type PreviousBriefing struct {
+	When time.Time
+	Text string
+}
+
 // BuildUserPrompt renders the fetched result into the user-turn text sent
-// alongside SystemPrompt. previousReport is the narrative text of the last
-// archived briefing (see archive.LoadLatest), used so Claude can dedup this
-// briefing against it; pass "" if none exists yet (e.g. first-ever run).
-func BuildUserPrompt(targets config.Targets, result fetch.Result, previousReport string) string {
+// alongside SystemPrompt. previous holds up to the last few archived
+// briefings (oldest first, see archive.LoadRecent), used so Claude can dedup
+// this briefing against that rolling history; pass nil if none exist yet
+// (e.g. first-ever run).
+func BuildUserPrompt(targets config.Targets, result fetch.Result, previous []PreviousBriefing) string {
 	var b strings.Builder
 
 	fmt.Fprintf(&b, "Date: %s\n\n", time.Now().Format("2006-01-02"))
 
-	if previousReport != "" {
-		b.WriteString("## Previous Briefing (posted ~5 hours ago — see system prompt for how to use this)\n\n")
-		b.WriteString(previousReport)
-		b.WriteString("\n\n")
+	if len(previous) > 0 {
+		fmt.Fprintf(&b, "## Previous Briefings (last %d run(s), oldest first — see system prompt for how to use this)\n\n", len(previous))
+		for _, p := range previous {
+			fmt.Fprintf(&b, "### Briefing from %s (~%s ago)\n\n", p.When.Format("2006-01-02 15:04 MST"), time.Since(p.When).Round(time.Minute))
+			b.WriteString(p.Text)
+			b.WriteString("\n\n")
+		}
 	}
 
 	b.WriteString("## Prices\n\n")

internal/archive/archive.go

@@ -67,22 +67,35 @@ func Save(cfg config.ArchiveConfig, run Run, now time.Time) (string, error) {
 	return dir, nil
 }
 
-// LoadLatest reads back the most recent previously-archived run's
-// report.md, for the prompt to dedup the next briefing against. Returns
-// ("", nil) if no prior run exists yet (e.g. first-ever run) — callers
-// should treat that as "no previous report" rather than an error.
-func LoadLatest(cfg config.ArchiveConfig) (string, error) {
+// RecentRun is one previously-archived run's timestamp and report text, as
+// returned by LoadRecent.
+type RecentRun struct {
+	When   time.Time
+	Report string
+}
+
+// runDirLayout is the timestamp format run directories are named with (see
+// Save), used by LoadRecent to recover each run's time.
+const runDirLayout = "20060102T150405Z"
+
+// LoadRecent reads back up to the last n previously-archived runs' report.md
+// contents, oldest first, for the prompt to dedup the next briefing against
+// a rolling window of recent history. Returns (nil, nil) if no prior run
+// exists yet (e.g. first-ever run) — callers should treat that as "no
+// previous reports" rather than an error. Runs whose report.md is missing or
+// unreadable are skipped rather than failing the whole call.
+func LoadRecent(cfg config.ArchiveConfig, n int) ([]RecentRun, error) {
 	base, err := resolveDir(cfg)
 	if err != nil {
-		return "", err
+		return nil, err
 	}
 
 	entries, err := os.ReadDir(base)
 	if err != nil {
 		if os.IsNotExist(err) {
-			return "", nil
+			return nil, nil
 		}
-		return "", fmt.Errorf("archive: list %q: %w", base, err)
+		return nil, fmt.Errorf("archive: list %q: %w", base, err)
 	}
 
 	var runDirs []string
@@ -92,19 +105,27 @@ func LoadLatest(cfg config.ArchiveConfig) (string, error) {
 		}
 	}
 	if len(runDirs) == 0 {
-		return "", nil
+		return nil, nil
 	}
 	sort.Strings(runDirs) // timestamp-named dirs sort chronologically
-	latest := runDirs[len(runDirs)-1]
 
-	data, err := os.ReadFile(filepath.Join(base, latest, "report.md"))
-	if err != nil {
-		if os.IsNotExist(err) {
-			return "", nil
-		}
-		return "", fmt.Errorf("archive: read previous report: %w", err)
+	if len(runDirs) > n {
+		runDirs = runDirs[len(runDirs)-n:]
 	}
-	return string(data), nil
+
+	var runs []RecentRun
+	for _, name := range runDirs {
+		when, err := time.Parse(runDirLayout, name)
+		if err != nil {
+			continue
+		}
+		data, err := os.ReadFile(filepath.Join(base, name, "report.md"))
+		if err != nil {
+			continue
+		}
+		runs = append(runs, RecentRun{When: when.UTC(), Report: string(data)})
+	}
+	return runs, nil
 }
 
 // resolveDir returns cfg.Dir (or defaultDir if empty) with "~" expanded.

internal/config/config.go

@@ -76,9 +76,10 @@ type AdvisorConfig struct {
 }
 
 // ArchiveConfig controls saving a local copy of each run's fetched data and
-// analysis. Archiving is always on: besides being a debugging aid, the
-// previous run's report.md is read back on every run to let the prompt
-// dedup against it (see analyze.BuildUserPrompt).
+// analysis. Archiving is always on: besides being a debugging aid, the last
+// few runs' report.md files are read back on every run to let the prompt
+// dedup against that rolling history (see archive.LoadRecent,
+// analyze.BuildUserPrompt).
 type ArchiveConfig struct {
 	// Dir is the directory each run's files are written under, one
 	// timestamped subdirectory per run. Supports a leading "~". Defaults to

internal/output/discord.go

@@ -63,9 +63,10 @@ func (d *discordOutput) Send(ctx context.Context, rep report.Report) error {
 		}
 	}
 
-	embeds := buildRecommendationEmbeds(rep.Recommendations)
-	if err := d.postEmbeds(ctx, embeds); err != nil {
-		return fmt.Errorf("discord: send recommendation embeds: %w", err)
+	if embeds := buildRecommendationEmbeds(rep.Recommendations); len(embeds) > 0 {
+		if err := d.postEmbeds(ctx, embeds); err != nil {
+			return fmt.Errorf("discord: send recommendation embeds: %w", err)
+		}
 	}
 	return nil
 }
@@ -113,9 +114,10 @@ const (
 // embed's `description`.
 const discordDescriptionLimit = 4096
 
-// buildRecommendationEmbeds renders the buy and sell recommendations as two
-// separate Discord embeds (always both, even when one or both lists are
-// empty, so "nothing to report" is stated explicitly rather than omitted).
+// buildRecommendationEmbeds renders the buy and sell recommendations as
+// separate Discord embeds, one per non-empty list. If there are no
+// recommendations at all, it returns nil and no message is sent — an empty
+// buy/sell call isn't worth a Discord notification.
 func buildRecommendationEmbeds(recs []report.Recommendation) []map[string]any {
 	var buyLines, sellLines []string
 	for _, r := range recs {
@@ -127,21 +129,21 @@ func buildRecommendationEmbeds(recs []report.Recommendation) []map[string]any {
 		}
 	}
 
-	return []map[string]any{
-		recommendationEmbed("🟢 Buy", colorBuy, buyLines, "No buy recommendations today."),
-		recommendationEmbed("🔴 Sell", colorSell, sellLines, "No sell recommendations today."),
+	var embeds []map[string]any
+	if len(buyLines) > 0 {
+		embeds = append(embeds, recommendationEmbed("🟢 Buy", colorBuy, buyLines))
 	}
+	if len(sellLines) > 0 {
+		embeds = append(embeds, recommendationEmbed("🔴 Sell", colorSell, sellLines))
+	}
+	return embeds
 }
 
-func recommendationEmbed(title string, color int, lines []string, emptyText string) map[string]any {
-	description := emptyText
-	if len(lines) > 0 {
-		description = truncateForDescription(strings.Join(lines, "\n"))
-	}
+func recommendationEmbed(title string, color int, lines []string) map[string]any {
 	return map[string]any{
 		"title":       title,
 		"color":       color,
-		"description": description,
+		"description": truncateForDescription(strings.Join(lines, "\n")),
 	}
 }